The Power Play Behind Saudi Aramco's IPO

Advertisements

Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, epitomizes the harmonious blend of vast oil reserves, low extraction costs, and exceptionally high-quality crude oilIn light of persistently low oil prices, the Saudi government strategically sought to list the company on the stock exchange, aiming to raise funds critical for its diversification plans focused on transitioning its economy away from oil dependencyTo enhance the attractiveness of Saudi Aramco, the government reduced corporate tax rates and minimized royalty costs while promising substantial dividends, actions designed to elevate the company's market value.

The dynamics of the global oil market took a turn in 2022, marked by increasing oil prices spurred by tightening supplies and geopolitical tensionsBrent crude oil prices breached the significant $100 per barrel mark in February, soaring above $110 by March

Advertisements

This surge reflected the volatility inherent in the oil markets, often influenced by world events that precipitate shifts in supply and demand.

In 2021, Saudi Aramco’s average crude oil sale hovered around $70.5 per barrel, but in the first quarter of 2022, this figure escalated to $97.7. The company’s quarterly net profit reached an impressive $39.5 billion, marking a staggering 81.7% year-over-year growth, a clear indicator of its robust financial health in the landscape of rising energy prices.

The stock price of Saudi Aramco hit a historical high of 46.25 Saudi Riyals (SAR) in May 2022, reflecting an 88% increase since the 24.55 SAR low in March 2020. Utilizing a fixed exchange rate of 3.75 SAR to 1 USD, the market capitalization of Saudi Aramco surpassed $2.4 trillion at its peak, cementing its position as the world’s most valuable company, even eclipsing technology giant Apple.

For a government facing fiscal pressures, such developments represent a boon

Advertisements

In a significant maneuver, the Saudi government in February 2022 transferred a 4% equity stake in Saudi Aramco to its Public Investment Fund (PIF), effectively bolstering its fiscal situation and improving its credit ratings.

Saudi Arabia’s geographical positioning in the oil-rich Persian Gulf basin has endowed Saudi Aramco with large reserves and superior crude oil qualityBy the end of 2021, the company’s proven oil reserves stood at a staggering 193.2 billion barrels, and its daily production reached approximately 9.22 million barrels, accounting for 13% of global oil productionIn stark contrast, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) produced just 2.43 million barrels daily, indicating Saudi Aramco's dominant capacity in the sector.

The upstream operating costs of Saudi Aramco have historically been remarkably low, recorded at $2.8 per barrel in 2018, increasing only slightly to $3 in 2021. In comparison, CNPC's operating costs were about $12.3 per barrel, while CNOOC's were $7.83, showcasing Saudi Aramco’s competitive edge

Advertisements

With revenue heavily tied to fluctuating oil prices, the company’s revenue and net profits saw dramatic swings; for instance, after a rough period in 2020 when the average sale price fell to $40.6 per barrel, 2021 recorded a remarkable rise to nearly $400 billion in revenue, with net profit hitting $110 billion.

Traditionally, Saudi Aramco was fully state-owned, operating with strict government oversight and receiving no outside investmentThe company has roots that trace back to the early 20th century when it was established as the Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco) in 1933. The company underwent a methodical process of nationalization, culminating in complete state ownership by 1988.

The financial adversity following the oil crash in mid-2014 catalyzed the government to reconsider its long-standing position on public equity

A major price drop saw oil plummeting to $26 a barrel in early 2016, forcing the Saudi government to entertain an IPO for Saudi Aramco to finance domestic non-oil investments for a broader economic diversification strategyDiscussions around an IPO began around 2016, with plans aimed at offering a 5% stake.

However, the improve oil prices post-2016 and the strengthening political situation shifted the urgency of an IPODespite this, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s ambitious "Vision 2030" initiative revitalized the IPO process, aiming to inject foreign capital into the kingdom and reduce its reliance on oil revenue.

The IPO of Saudi Aramco officially launched in November 2019 on the Tadawul stock exchange in RiyadhIt was the largest IPO in global history, raising approximately $25.6 billion by offering 1.5% of the company's shares at a price of 32 SAR per share

alefox

Additional shares were allocated through an over-allotment option, bringing the total funds raised to nearly $29.4 billion.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to go public was not without its complexities regarding profit distribution and taxationAs the sole shareholder, the government enjoyed previously unchallenged control but faced the necessity to establish a balanced relationship with potential investors and Saudi Aramco’s operational structures.

Notably, Saudi Aramco's operations faced challenges from governmental regulations that affected pricing structuresHowever, a novel equalization mechanism was introduced to subsidize these discrepanciesThis measure ensured that the company remains financially viable while adhering to domestic price controls.

Saudi Arabia has historically not levied income taxes on individuals, instead requiring companies to contribute a 2.5% religious tax, known as Zakat

Yet, for oil companies, the income tax rate soared to 85%. In a strategic shift, the Saudi government undertook modifications to reduce the income tax rate for Saudi Aramco to 50% from 85%, making strides to foster a more investment-friendly climate.

The trend of reducing royalty burdens further bolstered the financial viability of Saudi AramcoInitially based on sales commissions, from 2017 onward, royalties shifted to be calculated based on production valuesThe proposal outlined reduced rates based on oil price brackets, reflecting a more adaptive approach to fluctuating global markets.

Under this new approach, the government extended royalty breaks during lean periods, and the prices spurred relatively favorable operational metrics, improving the profitability outlook even amidst a turbulent marketplace.

To appeal to conservative investors who favor stability, Saudi Aramco its IPO documentation proposed a robust dividend policy, pledging a minimum of $75 billion in dividends annually for the first five years post-IPO

These payouts were structured to underline the company’s strong cash flow positions while balancing between government interests and shareholder returns.

Despite these positive figures, sustained pressures for high dividends became a significant obligation for the company, with dividends sometimes surpassing annual net profitsFor example, in 2020, the company distributed $696 billion in dividends against a net profit of just $490 billion, showcasing the financial strain imposed by its commitments.

In light of the geopolitical tensions and an increasingly competitive energy market, Saudi Arabia's government pinned its hopes on high oil prices to mitigate its fiscal pressuresRecent projections suggested a dramatic increase in Brent crude prices could reach $140 per barrel, further solidifying Saudi Aramco’s pivotal role for the kingdom's economic health and stability.

In a world struggling with rapid climate change and transitioning energy paradigms, the narrative surrounding fossil fuel industries increasingly positioned them at risk of obsolescence